Will opposition leaders change after elections?
Anatol Laybedzka hopes that the BCP and BNF will coordinate their participation in the elections to the House of Representatives with the decision of the UDF Political Council. Lyavon Barshcheuski does not exclude such a possibility but does not believe in it. Syarhei Vaznyak says the party misunderstanding does not threat the UDF. A political scientist Vital Silitski predicts a replacement of opposition leaders.
According to the decision taken at a meeting of the Belarusian communist Party on August 10, members of this party will fight till the end during the elections of the House of Representatives. The Council of BNF took place on August 30 – the party decided to withdraw its deputy contenders on September 23. However, the Political Council of the United Democratic Forces held a meeting on August 31 and decided to postpone the final decision about participation in the elections till September 21. ERB has decided to find out why the meeting was necessary and whether it was a beginning of disintegration of the United Democratic Forces.
The co-leader of the UDF, the leader of the UCP Anatol Laybedzka, thinks that the BCP and BNF may change their opinion about participation in the parliamentary elections.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “”It is not party discipline that influences party decisions during or after the discussion – there are always arguments that turn the scale”.
That is why the importance of the meeting of UDF candidates and leaders on September 21 is more than it may seem, says the politician. The future of the united forces will depend on the decision taken during the meeting. The UDF leader would not like parties run away to their own political corners.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “If we preserve the UDF it will mean that we will be able to start getting ready for the presidential election campaign immediately. If we fail to preserve the UDF, we will return to the democratic disintegration we used to have and start from scratch”.
He named those who wanted to eliminate the UDF as a united force.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “First, it is the authorities and everything is clear about it. Second, it is the part of the international community that would like to establish good relations with Alyaksandr Lukashenka quicker and the UDF is an obstacle here. If we disappear they will be able to say: “But there is nobody else to talk to in Belarus”. Third, there are people and political groups that do not participate in the political process for some reason while they think they should exercise more influence on the coalition’s decisions”.
The leader of BNF Lyavon Barshcheuski does not exclude that their position may change but it is a theoretical matter. The authorities would have to do a lot for it.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “What if radical changes take place by September 21?! What if they include our representatives in election commissions and register our deputy contenders? Then it may happen. However, I do not believe in it, it is rather unlikely”.
According to him, the fact that the position of BNF differs from the position of other members of the UDF does not imply that the United Democratic Forces are suffering from a preinfarction angina.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “We have fulfilled all our commitments – we have prepared candidates and commission members and we will conduct our agitation campaign until September 23. It does not contradict the unity of the UDF. However, nobody is able to force us to take part in the final stage when the elections will be falsified”.
The politician did not answer whether the UDF could last till the presidential elections. However, he noted that BNF was not going to leave the coalition.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “We will continue working in the UDF as long as Belarus needs it”.
One of the leaders of the Belarusian Communist Party Syarhei Vaznyak also admits that both BNF and communists may change their mind. He says it will depend on the election campaign. He does not think that different attitude to the participation in the parliamentary elections poses a threat to the existence of the UDF.
Syarhai Vaznyak: “The majority of members and subjects of the Political Council and the majority of democratic candidates supported the idea of fighting till the end yesterday. However, it was decided for the time being. So there is a unity although it is not unanimous. I do not think it may lead to a split of the coalition”.
According to a political scientist Vital Silitski, a misunderstanding of the kind is rather common for an association like the Belarusian UDF. Its members do not have common goals.
Vital Silitski: “When goals are common it means there is unity, if they are not – disintegration begins. It seems to me that the problem of the Belarusian opposition is in the fact that primary political goals are not set. Different opposition subjects had different opinions about the elections right from the start. However, the unity should have been demonstrated in certain purposes. The semblance of the unity disappeared when it turned out that all opposition parties were about to lose”.
The political scientist claims that the UDF is an association created artificially. The united coalition is an obstacle for some foreign circles willing to establish cooperation with the Belarusian authorities. That is why its future is vague.
Vital Silitski: “Some opposition forces are simply afraid of being let down in the process of this dialogue. As far as I know, negotiations about including certain opposition members in the House of Representatives are being conducted now. It means that the authorities will appoint new opposition leaders with the help of the OSCE, the German Embassy and others. Who would like it to happen?”
It seems that we may see the Belarusian opposition in a totally new framework after September 28. Friends may become rivals then.
According to the decision taken at a meeting of the Belarusian communist Party on August 10, members of this party will fight till the end during the elections of the House of Representatives. The Council of BNF took place on August 30 – the party decided to withdraw its deputy contenders on September 23. However, the Political Council of the United Democratic Forces held a meeting on August 31 and decided to postpone the final decision about participation in the elections till September 21. ERB has decided to find out why the meeting was necessary and whether it was a beginning of disintegration of the United Democratic Forces.
The co-leader of the UDF, the leader of the UCP Anatol Laybedzka, thinks that the BCP and BNF may change their opinion about participation in the parliamentary elections.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “”It is not party discipline that influences party decisions during or after the discussion – there are always arguments that turn the scale”.
That is why the importance of the meeting of UDF candidates and leaders on September 21 is more than it may seem, says the politician. The future of the united forces will depend on the decision taken during the meeting. The UDF leader would not like parties run away to their own political corners.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “If we preserve the UDF it will mean that we will be able to start getting ready for the presidential election campaign immediately. If we fail to preserve the UDF, we will return to the democratic disintegration we used to have and start from scratch”.
He named those who wanted to eliminate the UDF as a united force.
Anatol Lyabedzka: “First, it is the authorities and everything is clear about it. Second, it is the part of the international community that would like to establish good relations with Alyaksandr Lukashenka quicker and the UDF is an obstacle here. If we disappear they will be able to say: “But there is nobody else to talk to in Belarus”. Third, there are people and political groups that do not participate in the political process for some reason while they think they should exercise more influence on the coalition’s decisions”.
The leader of BNF Lyavon Barshcheuski does not exclude that their position may change but it is a theoretical matter. The authorities would have to do a lot for it.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “What if radical changes take place by September 21?! What if they include our representatives in election commissions and register our deputy contenders? Then it may happen. However, I do not believe in it, it is rather unlikely”.
According to him, the fact that the position of BNF differs from the position of other members of the UDF does not imply that the United Democratic Forces are suffering from a preinfarction angina.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “We have fulfilled all our commitments – we have prepared candidates and commission members and we will conduct our agitation campaign until September 23. It does not contradict the unity of the UDF. However, nobody is able to force us to take part in the final stage when the elections will be falsified”.
The politician did not answer whether the UDF could last till the presidential elections. However, he noted that BNF was not going to leave the coalition.
Lyavon Barshcheuski: “We will continue working in the UDF as long as Belarus needs it”.
One of the leaders of the Belarusian Communist Party Syarhei Vaznyak also admits that both BNF and communists may change their mind. He says it will depend on the election campaign. He does not think that different attitude to the participation in the parliamentary elections poses a threat to the existence of the UDF.
Syarhai Vaznyak: “The majority of members and subjects of the Political Council and the majority of democratic candidates supported the idea of fighting till the end yesterday. However, it was decided for the time being. So there is a unity although it is not unanimous. I do not think it may lead to a split of the coalition”.
According to a political scientist Vital Silitski, a misunderstanding of the kind is rather common for an association like the Belarusian UDF. Its members do not have common goals.
Vital Silitski: “When goals are common it means there is unity, if they are not – disintegration begins. It seems to me that the problem of the Belarusian opposition is in the fact that primary political goals are not set. Different opposition subjects had different opinions about the elections right from the start. However, the unity should have been demonstrated in certain purposes. The semblance of the unity disappeared when it turned out that all opposition parties were about to lose”.
The political scientist claims that the UDF is an association created artificially. The united coalition is an obstacle for some foreign circles willing to establish cooperation with the Belarusian authorities. That is why its future is vague.
Vital Silitski: “Some opposition forces are simply afraid of being let down in the process of this dialogue. As far as I know, negotiations about including certain opposition members in the House of Representatives are being conducted now. It means that the authorities will appoint new opposition leaders with the help of the OSCE, the German Embassy and others. Who would like it to happen?”
It seems that we may see the Belarusian opposition in a totally new framework after September 28. Friends may become rivals then.
