Expert: NATO, Russia in a big 'battle' for Belarus
Where should our nation seek security: in the East or West? Should we join the Alliance or boost relations with Russia? Experts and military analysts discuss in
A public debate on the challenges and concepts of the development of the Belarusian army was organized by Liberal Club on November 9 in Minsk
Experts consumed a significant amount of time, discussing where Belarus should seek security: in the West or the East.
Dzianis Melnyatsou from Belarusian Institute
for Strategic Studies (BISS) reckons that Belarus should join NATO. In
his view, Belarusian authorities consider cooperation with the Alliance
as Plan B.
Dzianis Melnyatsou: "Obviously,
Belarusian authorities are keeping the cooperation with NATO as a
reserve option in case they fall out completely with Russia..."
The
relations between Belarus and NATO at the technical level are
developing quite fast, but ordinary citizens know little about it as the
state media portray NATO as an enemy. Besides, Belarus' official
military doctrine describes NATO's enlargement as a threat, according to
the expert.
Meanwhile, Belarusian officers participate in NATO's joint exercises.
Dzianis Melnyatsou: "Since 2005,
Belarusian servicemen have taken part in exercises under the auspices of
NATO. Such drills were held, for example, in Albania and Ukraine, when a
Belarusian peace-keeping company was under command of NATO officers".
But, in the view of military analyst Alyaksandr Alesin, this is just an outline or brain game.
Alyaksandr Alesin:
"20 officers and a company at drills can't be compared to the joint
land forces grouping, created by Belarus and Russia, numbering dozens of
thousand servicemen, thousands of tanks, etc. It is hard to say that we
will see such level of cooperation with NATO anytime in the near
future".
To paraphrase a Mexican saying, Belarus is very far away from God and very near to Russia.
Since Russia has a huge leverage on Belarus, Belarus's cautionless move
towards NATO may lead to serious concequences, reckons Alyaksandr
Alesin.
Alyaksandr Alesin: "If
Belarus joins the other camp, Moscow will be left unprotected from the
air or on the ground. There will be no time left to react to a missile
attack. Therefore, it is hard to imagine Russia allowing Belarus to join
NATO. In this case, one can talk about the toughest scenarios".
Belarus' former defense minister Pavel Kazlouski agreed with Alesin.
Pavel Kazlouski: "If Belarus decides to
join NATO, it will imply paramount costs. We can't even imagine these
figures. Now we should think about how to democratize the army and to
pass a law on alternative service instead of thinking about NATO
membership".
But, all experts agree that since Belarus has a
very important strategic position, West and East will continue
'fighting' for Belarus.
Dzianis Melnyatsou: "Naturally, there will be a huge 'battle' for Belarus between NATO and Russia.
NATO's problem is the so called "Baltic balcony", while Russia's
problem is the Kaliningrad region. Here, Belarus becomes a key issue
