"Belarus’ collapse. Russia waits to buy its neighbour”

Photo by Syarhei Hryts, AP

Here is a translation of extracts from Wacław Radziwinowicz’s article published in the today’s issue of “Gazeta Wyborcza”.

People are queuing near those few currency exchange offices that still work. Speculators in foreign currency have returned to Minsk streets. By the way, nobody saw them for about 10 years there. In fact, Belarusians can buy Russian roubles, euro or dollars only from them. And their dollars will not cost 3.1 thousand Belarusian roubles (the official exchange rate), they will cost 4.3 thousand “rabbits” – that’s how people call the local currency. People are fighting for queuing spots near the few working currency exchange offices.

The collapse of the money-market hinders the already weak Belarusian industry because enterprises are unable to buy foreign details. “The Belarusian economy has been thrown back by 10 years in a few weeks and companies are trying to pay by using exchange again”, - says Paulyuk Bykouski, columnist of “Belarusians and Market”.

Belarusians are panicking and the official mass media are silent. The most popular Russian channels broadcast in Belarus are showing reports from Minsk shops where people are buying packs of sugar, cereals, flower and oil. The yesterdays’ articles of the leading Russian newspapers are spreading this panic even more: it was stated that Lukashenka may be made to organize a great devaluation of “the rabbit” at any time.

"The interbank dollar exchange rate has exceeded the official rate by 40% in Minsk. Experts think that the rate is set too high due to the lack of foreign currency in the market. However, devaluation by 20% is well-grounded”, - reports “Independent Newspaper” well informed about the Belarusian issues. The President of the influential Russian “Sberbank”, German Gref, who also owns some Belarusian banks has added that “Minsk authorities will not be able to avoid devaluation”.


Lukashenka cannot escape in his traditional way – by asking Moscow or the European Union for credits. The West will not give him a cent after December 19 – when he repressed the opposition after the presidential election. Russians are also delaying the promised $2.7bn credit. They know that he has been driven into a corner and they are laying down strict terms.
According to “Independent Newspaper”, Moscow wants Minsk to sell shares of the most attractive Belarusian enterprises to Russian companies – like the gas-pipe system, production of fertilizers and Minsk Automobile Plant. Former Russian Minister of Economy Evgenii Yasin claims that Moscow will keep helping the current President until the dictator’s successor is found. However, Moscow has no illusions about Lukashenka, - informs the daily “Power”.

Lukashenka is blaming the population for the lack of foreign currency and products in shops. “Why are you rushing to foreign currency exchange offices? We live on Belarusian rubles and they have bought huge sums of foreign currency”, - wondered the dictator. He explained that the state needed dollars to buy expensive gas and medicines in Russia. To distract people’s attention from the economic problems, Lukashenka is trying to use the blast in Minsk metro to the full. A bomb killed 13 people and injured almost 200 there a week ago. Mass media published the names of two 25-year-old men accused of making the bomb and bringing it to the underground. They are ordinary Vitsebsk workers. “Two turners, even if one of them is a self-taught chemistry genius, are not enough for the regime to create the image of an enemy that could scare the people”.

It is worth mentioning that they acted according to the order of the internal enemy and hostile neighbouring states: Poland, Germany and even Russia. It will help ensure that people think that Belarus is a fortress under siege that has to be protected by self-sacrifice, - says Anatol Lyabedzka, leader of the opposition party UCP.  – The regime has been assuring us that the most important things are full stomachs, full refrigerators and tight-filled purses. It asked neighbours for enormous credits to provide the illusion of well-being and the money was spent on food. The authorities will start imposing new priorities on us now – stability and security. You can do without dollars and even without sugar in a fortress under siege. 

There is also an appeal to struggle for the release of Andrzej Pachobut  -“Sign”  - near the article in “Wyborcza”.

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