Economists: Inflation and dollar will rise with no high loan rates


"The economy has become hostage to the banking system. The banking system became a kind of MMM, where enterprises of the the real sector of the economy bear the main load of interest payments. But their capabilities are not limitless," suddenly publicly declares SCC chairman Leanid Anfimau at the meeting.

Financial pyramid MMM engaged in selling shares that became increasingly more expensive due to new depositors. In 1994, the MMM stock was on equal footing with rubles and dollars, and the pyramid had from 10 to 20 million people.

We have asked economists about the common points ofin the largest Russian financial pyramid and Belarusian banks.

"Pyramid is just an epithet. The meeting dealt with the high interest rates on loans. They are this way because it is a means to ensure monetary stability at the time of an overvalued exchange rate. The real sector really pays for that. But this would not have happened, if we did not play with the policy of managed exchange rate," explains economist Syargei Chaly.


High interest rates on loans are the result of fighting inflation, says at once financial analyst of the official partner Alpari in Minsk Vadzim Iosub. He warns that such public statements from the head of the State Control Committee may influence deposits.

And if the rate on loans will fall, you can expect shortage of foreign currency.

"High interest rates are a charge for stabilization of financial situation in the country. If there were no such rates, dollar exchange rate would be higher, and when you tried to keep it - you would have the devaluation and shortage of the currency. I would not call it a pyramid," sums up Vadzim Iosub.

They are trying to blame the National Bank for the fact that our businesses operate inefficiently, said at once the director of the Research Center of the Institute for Privatization and Management Alyaksandr Chubryk. But agrees that the policy of the main bank of the country today is not perfect:

"The problem is not in the bank, but in the difficult conditions in which the economy is now. geting tied to the rate of devaluation is a good short-term measure, but we need to achieve one-digit inflation in the next two years. But it will have consequences for GDP."

Belinvestbank is ready to lower interest rates on loans, as soon as the National Bank lets it happen.

"All banks today have one rate - 32.3%. If the National Bank makes public the relevant information, we reduce our rate. Today we already have rates of 27%," said an employee of the bank.

The National Bank has not responded to the public statement of the chairman of the State control  and did not explain the difference between the country's banking system and a financial pyramid. In 2012 the leaders of the new MMM were arrested in Minsk by KGB. Some people have been behind bars for three years.

 

Photo: news.vitebsk.cc