Belarus has a chance not to find itself entirely behind the Iron Curtain, which is covering it after Russia. And to gain more independence from Russia. Whether it succeeds largely depends on Ukraine, but the Belarusian regime can also show that it does not want to be cut off from the world. This may require loosening the screws in the country, says political analyst Andrei Yahorau in a Euroradio broadcast.
"Today, Belarus is likely to find itself behind the Iron Curtain, along with Russia. The only way out in this situation is for Ukraine to demand a different status and a different attitude to Belarus".
The Belarusian regime itself can take specific steps: to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops, to say that we were forced by Russia to provide its territory and could not do anything. Belarus can also release political prisoners to reduce the level of repressive pressure. That is, to show that it is ready for liberalization, possible negotiations, etc.
This will allow Belarus to find itself behind a curtain, but not as dense as the one for Russia, the expert believes. Then Belarus will find itself between the civilized world and Russia and not closed to everyone but its neighbor.
"But it largely depends on Ukraine," emphasizes Andrei Yahorau.
A possible thaw is not in the interests of the authorities. But it won't cause much discontent on the part of the security and law enforcement agencies that were diligently rounding up political prisoners and beating people at protests, he says. After all, their behavior is changing rapidly. One day there's a WRW flag on the floor, and the next day there's a letter "Z" on the door of the GUBOPIK, depending on the mood, "on top."
"The regime is in a difficult situation because until now, the public has been perceived as an enemy which threatens the authorities no less than Russia does. The regime is between two fires: it must get out of the situation with Russia and regain control of the territory. And on the other hand, it is necessary not to surrender power to the Belarusian society and not to democratize".
But you have to understand that the behavior of the law enforcement agencies is like a weather vane. So are the Belarusian propagandists. If you read what the propagandists wrote at the beginning of the war, you would see that they were catching up on this hurrah-patriotism. This is a blitzkrieg. In three days, we will denazify, and so on.
Now, their rhetoric has changed since Lukashenka is no longer so belligerent.
"Suddenly, if necessary, we may see a reprisal against the GUBOPiK to retain power. Suddenly, as we have seen before, Lukashenko will say, "Why have you tightened the screws so tightly? I can't breathe. You are committing a crime against Belarus. You have to unscrew them back."
And we'll see some KGB raid on the GUBOPIC, the defeat of the Gestapik and some other situation. In other words, all this could change very quickly if they see this as an opportunity to maintain their power at the highest level. For now, it is about full support of Russia, exploiting the idea of an attack on Belarus. And now, seeing that something has changed, they may have already removed these "Z's" from their offices," concludes Andrei Yahorau.